Crunching the Numbers: Analyzing Singapores COE Market with Historical Data

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In Singapore, owning a car is a luxury that comes with a price tag. The Certificate of Entitlement (COE) is a government-issued license that grants the right to own and operate a vehicle on Singapore’s roads. It acts as a quota system that limits the number of cars on the roads, keeping congestion in check. As such, the COE market in Singapore is a unique industry that has drawn the attention of investors and economists alike.

This article aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of Singapore’s COE market with the help of historical data. We will look at trends, fluctuations, and projections in COE prices and their impact on different sectors in Singapore’s economy.

Trends in COE Prices over the Years

COE prices in Singapore have fluctuated vastly throughout the years, with a general upward trend. In 2011, the average COE price was around $40,000, while in 2013, it peaked at $92,000. Since then, the price of COEs has been on a decline, and the average price in 2019 was around $30,000.

One significant factor that contributed to the price increase was the increased car population, which resulted in a higher demand for COEs. However, as the government introduced more restrictions, the COE quota decreased, curbing demand for COEs.

Another contributing factor to the decrease in COE prices is the rise of ride-hailing services. These services have allowed individuals to meet their transportation needs without owning a car, reducing the demand for COEs. Furthermore, the development of public transportation in Singapore has also helped to decrease the demand for cars.

Forecasting the Future of Singapore's COE Market

Given the historical data and current trends, it seems that COE prices will remain relatively stable or continue to decrease in the future. The increase in ride-hailing services and public transportation options have already decreased the demand for cars, leading to lower COE prices. Additionally, the LTA may allocate more COE quotas in the future, which will further decrease prices.

However, external factors such as natural disasters or economic fluctuations could cause prices to increase in the future. For example, if there is a manufacturing problem in car-producing countries, the supply of cars will decrease, leading to higher COE prices in Singapore.

Singapore's COE market is unique, and it has contributed significantly to the overall effort to reduce traffic congestion in the country. COE prices have fluctuated over the years, and the reasons behind these fluctuations are complex. However, it seems that with the rise of ride-hailing services, public transportation options, and government restrictions, COE prices will likely continue to decrease or remain stable in the future. Nonetheless, Singaporean consumers and businesses must be mindful of the potential implications of COE price fluctuations on the transportation industry as a whole.


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